AN: U23A-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Scientific and Institutional Considerations for the Monitoring and Management of Planet Earth
AU: * Gilbert, L E
EM: leg4@columbia.edu
AF: University of Wisconsin-Madison Nelson Institute, 550 N. Park St. Room 122, Madison, WI 53705, United States
AB: Planet Earth is bounded and finite. The Earth system is comprised of a set of subsystems whose interactions are complex; a significant number of those subsystems are now dominated by human forcing. Many Earth subsystems have timescales that are long compared to current decision-making infrastructures. If we are to maintain or improve the aggregate quality of human life on our home planet, then we must at least attempt to place bounds on possible futures of the Earth system, and come to at least first order understanding of our management options. These efforts in turn can illuminate priorities for allocating our knowledge production resources and can guide the development and deployment of new Earth management technologies. The current state and future states of the Earth system can be thought of as a position in some state space that is defined by a vector whose components are a set of proxies for the states of Earth subsystems. Such proxies might include the NINO3 SST, the variance by country of per capita GDP, amphibian counts in the Sierra Nevada etc. The characteristics of these proxies include that they are reasonably easy to sample, that they capture deep information about how Earth is functioning at the time of sampling, and that they also include some information about how we might expect the Earth system to evolve in the near- to intermediate future. Just as the invention of coal burning altered Earth's trajectory through this state space, we should anticipate similar potential for technologies that are now in development. The Earth sciences, in partnership with other sciences and policy makers, will be called upon to characterize Earth sub-systems and their interactions. Advancement in systems modeling, uncertainty and risk, and efficient monitoring systems are essential elements of an Earth management infrastructure that reduces risk and increases resilience.
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 6319 Institutions
DE: 6339 System design
DE: 6344 System operation and management
DE: 9810 New fields (not classifiable under other headings)
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2009 Joint Assembly