AN: U23A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Beyond Climate and Weather Science: Expanding the Forecasting Family to Serve Societal Needs
AU: * Barron, E J
EM: barron@ucar.edu
AF: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305- 5602, United States
AB: The ability to "anticipate" the future is what makes information from the Earth sciences valuable to society - whether it is the prediction of severe weather or the future availability of water resources in response to climate change. An improved ability to anticipate or forecast has the potential to serve society by simultaneously improving our ability to (1) promote economic vitality, (2) enable environmental stewardship, (3) protect life and property, as well as (4) improve our fundamental knowledge of the earth system. The potential is enormous, yet many appear ready to move quickly toward specific mitigation and adaptation strategies assuming that the science is settled. Five important weakness must be addressed first: (1) the formation of a true "climate services" function and capability, (2) the deliberate investment in expanding the family of forecasting elements to incorporate a broader array of environmental factors and impacts, (3) the investment in the sciences that connect climate to society, (4) a deliberate focus on the problems associated with scale, in particular the difference between the scale of predictive models and the scale associated with societal decisions, and (5) the evolution from climate services and model predictions to the equivalent of "environmental intelligence centers." The objective is to bring the discipline of forecasting to a broader array of environmental challenges. Assessments of the potential impacts of global climate change on societal sectors such as water, human health, and agriculture provide good examples of this challenge. We have the potential to move from a largely reactive mode in addressing adverse health outcomes, for example, to one in which the ties between climate, land cover, infectious disease vectors, and human health are used to forecast and predict adverse human health conditions. The potential exists for a revolution in forecasting, that entrains a much broader set of societal needs and solutions. The argument is made that (for example) the current capabilities in the prediction of environmental health is similar to the capabilities (and potential) of weather forecasting in the 1960's.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2009 Joint Assembly